Tag: against doom
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Evolution provides no evidence for the sharp left turn
(Originally posted on LessWrong here) Does human evolution imply a sharp left turn from AIs? Arguments for the sharp left turn in AI capabilities often appeal to an “evolution -> human capabilities” analogy and say that evolution’s outer optimization process built a much faster human inner optimization process whose capability gains vastly outstripped those which evolution built…
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My Objections to “We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky”
Introduction I recently watched Eliezer Yudkowsky’s appearance on the Bankless podcast, where he argued that AI was nigh-certain to end humanity. Since the podcast, some commentators have offered pushback against the doom conclusion. However, one sentiment I saw was that optimists tended not to engage with the specific arguments pessimists like Yudkowsky offered. Economist Robin Hanson points out that this pattern is very common for small groups which…
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Deceptive Alignment is <1% Likely by Default
By David W. Thanks to Wil Perkins, Grant Fleming, Thomas Larsen, Declan Nishiyama, and Frank McBride for feedback on this post. Thanks also to Paul Christiano, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Aaron Scher for comments on the original post that helped clarify the argument. Any mistakes are my own. Introduction In this post, I argue that deceptive alignment is…
AI Optimism 